Unsurprisingly, a series of academic studies have found that the death penalty does deter murders.
This isn't shocking to me. I've always argued that, of course, the death penalty is a deterrent because that criminal won't get out and murder anybody. And it isn't like there aren't cases of people getting out of jail, then committing more murders.
But don't expect common sense from people adamantly opposed to the death penalty. And, frankly, I don't expect any amount of statistical evidence to change their minds.
"Science does really draw a conclusion. It did. There is no question about it," said Naci Mocan, an economics professor at the University of Colorado at Denver. "The conclusion is there is a deterrent effect."
A 2003 study he co-authored, and a 2006 study that re-examined the data, found that each execution results in five fewer homicides, and commuting a death sentence means five more homicides. "The results are robust, they don't really go away," he said. "I oppose the death penalty. But my results show that the death penalty (deters) — what am I going to do, hide them?"
Statistical studies like his are among a dozen papers since 2001 that capital punishment has deterrent effects. They all explore the same basic theory — if the cost of something (be it the purchase of an apple or the act of killing someone) becomes too high, people will change their behavior (forego apples or shy from murder).
To explore the question, they look at executions and homicides, by year and by state or county, trying to tease out the impact of the death penalty on homicides by accounting for other factors, such as unemployment data and per capita income, the probabilities of arrest and conviction, and more.
I proudly live in a state that executes more people than any other. Here's the list, if you are interested.
But the studies in question had more interesting findings.
• Each execution deters an average of 18 murders, according to a 2003 nationwide study by professors at Emory University. (Other studies have estimated the deterred murders per execution at three, five and 14).
• The Illinois moratorium on executions in 2000 led to 150 additional homicides over four years following, according to a 2006 study by professors at the University of Houston.
• Speeding up executions would strengthen the deterrent effect. For every 2.75 years cut from time spent on death row, one murder would be prevented, according to a 2004 study by an Emory University professor.
Even liberal law professor Cass Susstein has to ponder the results.
"If it's the case that executing murderers prevents the execution of innocents by murderers, then the moral evaluation is not simple," he told The Associated Press. "Abolitionists or others, like me, who are skeptical about the death penalty haven't given adequate consideration to the possibility that innocent life is saved by the death penalty."
One point not discussed is that many death penalty opponents dislike the death penalty purely on the moral grounds that the government shouldn't be in the business of executing people. It's a hard point to argue with, even if it isn't grounded in statistics or other facts. If you are 100% pro-life, there's a certain consistency involved with being against both abortion and the death penalty. The Catholic Church opposes both.
I think it is a more principled position than those trying to attack these studies because they don't like the results. To take the moral position that the death penalty is wrong because taking human life is wrong is more philosophical, but at least it doesn't run into the quagmire of studies contradicting it.
Cross-posted at Common Sense Political Thought.
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